Feedbacks: Narendra Modi’s sojourn in Bhutan

[This was published in Dhaka Courier on 2 October and in Burma Times on 30 September 2014]

Comprehensible memo to all is that Indian Premier Narendra Modi’s official kicking off to Bhutan from 15 to16 June 2014-- his first stop abroad since he took over—carries atomic enormity and Himalayan altitude of the first water in the milieu of the landscapes of India-Bhutan vis-a-vis Bhutan-China increasing relations specifically related to the 22^nd round of talks on border disputes and settlement scheduled to be held in August between monster China and miniature Bhutan.  Ahead of his visit, Mr Modi had said Bhutan was a "natural choice" as his first foreign destination because of the "unique and special relationship". On all counts, he has prima facie driven out China bringing Bhutan more contentedly within the fist of India. Such pragmatic and strategic wrapping up comes widely, what’s more, from views and reviews on the trip from various standpoints and some of which demonstratively deserve to be alluded as follows:

Times of India on 16 June 2014 assessed the feedbacks of the visit under 10 heads:

1. India and Bhutan reiterated their commitment to achieving the 10,000 MW target in hydropower cooperation and not to allow their territories to be used for interests "inimical" to each other.

2. Modi inaugurated one of India's assistance projects - the building of the Supreme Court of Bhutan and laid foundation stone of the 600MW Kholongchu Hydro-electric project, a joint venture between India and Bhutan.

 3. India also announced a number of measures and concessions including the exemption of Bhutan from any ban on export of milk powder, wheat, edible oil, pulses and non-basmati rice.

4. The two sides recalled the free trade arrangement between them and the expanding bilateral trade and its importance in further cementing their friendship.
5. Prime Minister Narendra Modi also mooted the idea of an annual hill sports festival with India's northeastern states along with Bhutan and Nepal.

6. Modi announced doubling of scholarships being provided to Bhutanese students in India which will now be worth Rs 2 crore.

7. India will also assist Bhutan set up a digital library which will provide access to Bhutanese youth to two million books and periodicals.

8. Both India-Bhutan reaffirmed their commitment to extensive development cooperation and discussed ways to further enhance economic ties.

9. Modi described Bhutan as a natural choice for his first visit abroad as the two countries shared a "special relationship''

10. The fact that the Prime Minister chose Bhutan as his first foreign destination assumes significance since China has lately intensified efforts to woo it and establish full- fledged diplomatic ties with Thimphu.

 The Hindustan Times In an exclusive focus titled ‘PM talks of good neighbors, B2B ties in Bhutan’ on 15 June  2014 noted ‘Mr. Modi's overtures to Bhutan assume significance since China has lately intensified efforts to woo it and establish full-fledged diplomatic ties with Thimphu. The Buddhist nation, wedged between India and China, is the closest ally of India in South Asia, a region of bristling rivalry where China is making inroads. Mr Modi's visit comes ahead of another round of scheduled bilateral talks between China and Bhutan’.

On 17 June 2014 in DNA, Shastri Ramachandaran, in the write-up ‘Reading between the lines of PM Narendra Modi’s Bhutan visit,’ penned: ‘in diplomacy, subtext and context are more important than text. Narendra Modi’s first foreign visit as Prime Minister is no exception to this rule. His Thimphu trip was intended to show that in the new scheme of things, the neighborhood enjoys high priority. This is obvious.

Less obvious may be the reasons for Prime Minister Modi telling a joint session of the Bhutan Parliament that “relationship with Bhutan will be a key foreign policy priority of my government”. A good neighbor, he said, is important for a country’s happiness, and in its absence a nation cannot live in peace despite prosperity.

The prosperous neighbor, for both India and Bhutan, is China; and, China, like India, is troubled by Islamist terrorism, which can be traced to Pakistan. Modi pointedly reminded Bhutan that one of the factors responsible for its happiness was having a good neighbor like India’.

"This visit has been extremely successful and entirely satisfying. It will further strengthen Indo-Bhutan ties. The Prime Minister also reaffirmed all commitments made by the previous UPA government to Bhutan on various issues since they were not given merely by a government but were made by one country to another." external affairs minister of India Sushma Swaraj told reporters at the end of the tour.

More mesmerizing is that India and Bhutan issued a joint statement at the end of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first official visit to the Himalayan nation, which, inter alia, include: ‘The two sides agreed to continue with their close coordination and cooperation on issues relating to national interests, and not allow each other's territory to be used for interest inimical to the other’. Needless to say it’s a reference to and fingering at China. Therefore, China’s offer of a package to Bhutan to settle border disputes again became overcast and convoluted squall of which blew in a corresponding mood and mode during the 22^nd round of talks held in Beijing in August 2014.

Further unfolding reality bears a testimony that China at the present is imbued, enlightened, blessed and encouraged going beyond lines because of functioning of so many factors, conceptually unambiguous/approving or not, like String of Pearls, Silk Road and China Dream. All these are taking China to a point of sensation and destination within a period of time making her a global power in the end. From these standpoints, it is not so easy a task for China to stomach the fact that Bhutan presently maintains diplomatic relations with 52 countries, including Japan, its adversary, while China does not figure in Bhutan’s foreign policy priorities despite being an immediate neighbor despite the fact both sides regularly exchange political, trade and cultural delegations. It might be out of such ill-digestion or non-digestion that Former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao too had made a strong pitch to establish diplomatic ties with Bhutan when he met his Bhutanese counterpart Jigmiy Thinley on the sidelines of a UN conference in Brazil in 2012. In April 2012, Zhou Gang, former Chinese ambassador to India, was sent to Bhutan as a special envoy to convey this message. Bhutan’s willingness then started to appear to be much brighter and more positive in this regard.

Bhutan had been hobnobbing with China more promisingly under the immediate past Premier Jigmey Thinley adding and fueling grave concerns in the security and foreign policy establishment of India. New Delhi’s decision to suspend subsidy on LPG and kerosene it supplied to the country, just before the 2^nd elections to the National Assembly of Bhutan in 2013, was detected by many as a token show of New Delhi’s discontentment with Bhutan’s outreach to China under Thinley’s statesmanship. A commentary in the Communist Party-run tabloid Global Times, known for its hard-line views, in 2013 accused India of influencing domestic elections in Bhutan and treating the country "like a protectorate" by withdrawing petroleum subsidies. The move was seen by some in Thimphu as a response to its warming ties with Beijing, although New Delhi rejected those suggestions. The withdrawal of subsidies before Bhutan’s elections reflected that India never gives up its power politics where it doesn’t need to,” the commentary said, describing “Indian influence on Bhutan’s elections” as ‘a tragedy for Thimphu’.

Realistically and ironically enough, defeat of Thinley’s party in the elections paved stronger grounds for India’s stronghold in Bhutan. The resolution was revoked soon after Tshering Tobgay’s People’s Democratic Party was voted to power in the second parliamentary elections held on July 13, 2013. Following his assumption of office, Tobgay said, “Good relations with India are the cornerstone of our foreign policy”.

These days, Bhutan is indisposed to do anything what would significantly offend India. As if to emphasize this, a day after Modi’s trip over, Bhutan’s Prime Minister, Tshering Tobgay, reversing the tone of his predecessor Jigmey Thinley, told India’s NDTV news channel there was no plan for a Chinese mission any time shortly. “We don’t even have any diplomatic relations. How can there be an embassy without diplomatic relations? The incumbent Prime minister is considered to be more accommodative as far as India’s security and economic interests are concerned. Yes, here lies the victory of Modi’s first ever visits to Bhutan.

Rupak Bhattacharjee, a celebrated researcher in south Asia,  in his piece ‘The Chinese shadow over India-Bhutan relations’ in South Asia Monitor, 29 July 2014, added that ‘A section of Western media believes that the new “Hindu nationalist” premier’s visit was designed to assert India’s pre-eminent position in South Asia. India under Modi is trying to regain its influence in the region where China has stepped up efforts to expand its clout. China is fast emerging as a key development partner in smaller countries like Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh by offering financial and technical assistance for several infrastructural projects. New Delhi has been competing with Beijing to come up as the dominant foreign investor and donor of infrastructural loans in South Asia’. Modi has, thus, asserted and strengthened India’s position up to his satisfaction.

Notwithstanding anything contained in diverse views, comments and analyses, China styles herself as an accommodative neighbor and that’s why, while making comments on the feedbacks of Modi’s trip tp Bhutan, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying told reporters that China was “happy to see the development of friendly, cooperative, mutually beneficial relations between our other neighbors”. This is called Chinese diplomacy anointed with visionary politics backed by the doctrines ‘Silk Road, String of Pearls and China Dream’ in mind.

Plain truth is that India, having on head ‘India doctrine’—Monroe doctrine in Indian perspective--shall never allow Bhutan to lean towards China. It is meanwhile locked within the fold of India doctrine. Thus, Bhutan is not in a position to stand against India (raise the head high in pride) while dealing with China. Both history and geography tell her mostly to be with India. Political parties in Bhutan in particular PDP (People’s Democratic Party) and DPT (Bhutan Peace and Prosperity Party) are loyal to India. Modi’s saying ‘Humare passport ke rang alag ho sakte hain par humari virasat aur values mein koi farak nhi nazar ayega (The color of our passports may be different but our thinking is the same)’ should not be taken merely as an utterance. Events of future, approving or not, are yet to be unfolded. For the time being one may feel free to take it guaranteed that China, under the current circumstances, cannot dominate Bhutan from afar.