Bhutan: Locked within the fold of India doctrine?

[This was published in Dhaka Courier on 25 September 2014]

Can the Kingdom of Bhutan under constitutional monarchy since 2008-- a landlocked country with an area of approximately 38,394 square kilometers and a population of nearly 800000(eight lacs) in South Asia located at the eastern end of the Himalayas and is bordered to the north by China and to the south, east and west by India-- play role and determine its standing with the head high in pride, not hung down in shame in settling her border disputes with China in the context of India-China Relations, two giant rivals in the Asian political landscapes? From practical and strategic standpoints, it’s indeed a billion dollar question and, therefore, responses lay in understanding, realizing and focusing, firstly, Bhutan-India Relations and Bhutan-China Relations, secondly, India-China border disputes and Bhutan-China border disputes, thirdly, Bhutan’s importance to India and China from their respective stand and fourthly, Bhutan’s overall standing to uphold, defend and protect her national interests while dealing with China and India.

Factually speaking, understanding and cordiality between Bhutan and India started swelling through the signing of first ever friendship Treaty in 1865 between Bhutan and British India.. However, when Bhutan became a monarchy, British India was the first country to recognize it and renewed the treaty in 1910. Under the wave of same altitude, Bhutan enlisted her name as the first country to recognize Indian independence and renewed the age old treaty with the new government in 1949, including a clause that India would assist Bhutan in foreign relations. Indo-Bhutan Friendship Treaty was substantially revised on 8 February 2007 during the rule of the Bhutanese King, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck. In the Treaty of 1949 Article 2 read as "The Government of India undertakes to exercise no interference in the internal administration of Bhutan. On its part the Government of Bhutan agrees to be guided by the advice of the Government of India in regard to its external relations." In the revised treaty this now reads as, "In keeping with the abiding ties of close friendship and cooperation between Bhutan and India, the Government of the Kingdom of Bhutan and the Government of the Republic of India shall cooperate closely with each other on issues relating to their national interests. Neither government shall allow the use of its territory for activities harmful to the national security and interest of the other." The revised treaty also includes in it the preamble "Reaffirming their respect for each other's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity", an element that was absent in the earlier version. The Indo-Bhutan Friendship Treaty of 2007 strengthens Bhutan's status as an independent and sovereign nation. Since then, Bhutan-India Relations have been moving on the track of mutual understanding and necessity in various moods and modes.

One of the major attentions of Bhutan-India Relations is the international boundary between the two states, which, from strategic and geo-political standpoints, causes serious tension and panic for China from the revulsion that India feels that if there is any border settlement between China and Bhutan that might go against India since this will provide strategic privileges to China and, therefore, India is sensitive enough to influence Bhutan for not settling China-Bhutan border disputes. Bhutan-India border is 699 km long, and adjoins the Indian states of Assam (267 km), Arunachal Pradesh (217 km), West Bengal (183 km), and Sikkim (32 km). The Treaty of Peace between Britain and Bhutan demarcated the border in 1865, following the Bhutan War. The boundary was further detailed and refined in the 1973-1984 period through talks between Bhutan and India. Remaining disputes have been minor and concern part of the border with Arunachal Pradesh, and the region between Sarbhang and Geylegphug. The border between Bhutan and India is the only land access into entering Bhutan, as the border with China is completely closed. The single entry point for foreign nationals is between the towns of Jaigaon in the Indian state of West Bengal and Phuntsholing, in South West Bhutan. India allows 16 entry and exit points for Bhutanese trade with other countries (the only exception being the PRC).

Under these circumstances, India’s hold over Bhutan gradually increased--- entailing defence and come what may not---and has reached at such extent and point that Bhutan is now, one may agree or not, almost a kind of dependent state within the fold of India doctrine

On the other hand, Bhutan and China, though neighbors, have not yet established diplomatic relations as Bhutan, a strongly ally of India, had remained aloof since 1951 from China after Beijing took firm control of Tibet, which shared borders with Bhutan. Throughout history, Bhutan has had strong cultural, historical, religious and economic connections to Tibet. Relations with Tibet were strained when Bhutan sided with the British Empire in its war with Tibet. For a brief period, the Republic of China officially maintained a territorial claim on Bhutan. Unlike Tibet, Bhutan had no history of being under the suzerainty of China, instead being under British suzerainty during the British rule. With the increase in soldiers on the Chinese side of the Sino-Bhutanese border after the 17-point agreement between the local Tibetan government and the central government of China, Bhutan withdrew its representative from Lhasa. Its border with China has never been officially recognized and demarcated and the 1959 Tibetan Rebellion and the 14th Dalai Lama’s arrival in neighboring ally India made the security of its border with China a necessity for Bhutan. An estimated 6,000 Tibetans fled to Bhutan and were granted asylum, although Bhutan subsequently closed its border to China, fearing more refugees.

Along with the occupation of Tibet, the Chinese People's Liberation Army occupied eight western Tibetan enclaves under Bhutanese administration. A Chinese map published in 1961 showed China claiming territories in Bhutan. Incursions by Chinese soldiers and Tibetan herdsmen also provoked tensions in Bhutan. Imposing a cross-border trade embargo and closing the border, Bhutan established extensive military ties with India. During the 1962 Sino-Indian War, Bhutanese authorities permitted Indian troop movements through Bhutanese territory. However, India's defeat in the war raised concerns about India's ability to defend Bhutan. Consequently, while building its ties with India, Bhutan officially established a policy of neutrality. One area where the Bhutan-China ties are expanding is in the field of tourism. There were just 19 Chinese tourists visited Bhutan in 2003. But since 2011, Chinese have become the third largest category of tourists after Japan and the US in Bhutan

China shares 470 kilometers contiguous borders with Bhutan. The part of China that borders Bhutan is Tibet or the Xizang Autonomous Region which has important historical, cultural, and religious ties to Bhutan. This is also close to India's "chicken's neck"-- the narrow Siliguri Corridor—through which Mainland India is linked via Aurunachal Pradesh with its Northeastern states. China considers Arunachal Pradesh to be an inextricable part of Tibet’s “Monyul, Loyul and Lower Tsayul” regions. China sticks to the belief that the British Empire’s establishment of the McMahon line illegally distorted what China perceives to be the “customary boundary between China and India.” Arunachal Pradesh describes the territory between the McMahon line — which India takes as its sovereign borders — and the Chinese “customary boundary,” which is roughly equivalent to the borders of the contemporary Indian state of Assam. A new vertical atlas of China, an update of its official national map, issued by its Hunan Map Publishing House in the last week of June 2014 showing India held disputed Arunachal Pradhesh and parts of Jammu and Kashmir as the territory of China has raised further hullabaloo. It also raised question if China sticking to the map will go for annexing the territory that may lead to repetition of 1962 Indo-China war.

Further reality is Chumbi Valley with an altitude of 3,000 meters (9,500 feet) is located in Tibet at the intersection of India (Sikkim), Bhutan and China (Tibet) in the Himalayas. Two main passes between India and China open up here: the Nathu La Pass and Jelep La Pass. Administratively, the valley is in Yadong County of the Tibetan Autonomous Region. In November 2007, Chinese forces had intruded into Bhutanese territory and dismantled several unmanned posts near the Chumbi valley, distorting the Sino-Bhutanese border near Sikkim. The move had alarmed New Delhi because it brought the Chinese forces within just 500 kilometers of the Siliguri Corridor or Chicken’s Neck, which connects the rest of India with the Northeast and Nepal with Bhutan.

Bhutan's border with China is largely not demarcated and thus disputed in some places. Approximately 269 square kilometers remain under discussion between China and Bhutan According to official statements; there are four disputed areas between Bhutan and China. Starting from Doklam in the west, the border goes along the ridges from Gamochen to Batangla, Sinchela, and down to the Amo Chhu. The disputed area in Doklam covers 89 square kilometers (km²) and the disputed areas in Sinchulumpa and Gieu cover about 180 km^2. They signed an agreement promising to "maintain peace and tranquility on the Bhutan-China border areas," in 1998. The boundary negotiations between the two governments are guided by the Four Guiding Principles of 1988 and the 1998 Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility in the Bhutan-China border areas. The negotiations are going on since 1980s.  Bhutan-China relations have remained strained because of the dispute over their 470km border, which 22 rounds of talks including the last one in August 2014 have failed to solve, and it is believed that it happened so because of Thimphu’s close ties with New Delhi.

Beijing has offered Thimphu a deal: it wants Bhutan’s northwestern areas in exchange for recognizing its claim to its central areas. However, the northwestern areas lie next to Bhutan’s Chumbi valley, which is a tri-junction of the Bhutan, India and China borders and is of immense geo-strategic importance to China as it borders both Sikkim and Tibet. Any such deal, therefore, will have massive strategic concerns for India. So, New Delhi, as it has itself done with Beijing, favors Bhutan increasing its engagement with China and possibly come to a satisfactory resolution of the border dispute. India is not missing the sense of urgency that drives Beijing’s Bhutan policy. Bhutan remains only neighbor with which China doesn’t have diplomatic ties given that China has robust ties even with all neighbors locked in territorial disputes, its economic ties with Bhutan is nothing to write home about.

China is planning to lay an extension line stretching the Tibet railway from Lhasa to the borders of India, Nepal and Bhutan by 2020. This is apparently an attractive offer for Bhutan, which would like to attract Chinese tourists but it carries red signal for India. It is further t be noted that Former Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao too had made a strong pitch to establish diplomatic ties with Bhutan when he met his Bhutanese counterpart Jigmi Y Thinley on the sidelines of a UN conference in Brazil in 2012. Bhutan’s willingness appears to be much brighter and more positive in this regard.

The basis of Indian apprehension in the ongoing Bhutan-China boundary talks is its assessment that “China settles all boundary disputes on its own terms”. And Thimpu doesn’t have the leverage to assert itself against a big power. Beijing wants to expand its footprint on Chumbi valley, extending its claims on western border. Any concession from Bhutan on that will have impact on the Siliguri corridor, India’s gateway to north east. The disputed territory between Bhutan and China also borders both Sikkim and Arunanchal Pradesh. Any compromise on these areas will be very problematic for India, even as indications of Bhutan giving concessions on these areas to settle the dispute in the central part have come in.

Consequently, clear message to all is that Indian Premier Narendra Modi’s visit to Bhutan was of prime importance in the overall landscapes of India-Bhutan vis-a-vis Bhutan-China growing relations pointedly related to the 22^nd round of talks on border disputes and settlement. India, having on head ‘India doctrine’—Monroe doctrine in Indian perspective--shall never allow Bhutan to lean towards China. It is meanwhile locked within the fold of India doctrine. Thus, Bhutan is not in a position to stand against India (raise the head high in pride) while dealing with China. Both history and geography tell her to be with India. Political parties in Bhutan in particular PDP (People’s Democratic Party) and DPT (Bhutan Peace and Prosperity Party) are loyal to India. One may feel free to take it guaranteed that China cannot dominate Bhutan from afar.