[This was published in Daily Observer on 07
September and it is an extension of the write-up ‘Jostling under the armpits of
giants’ printed in Dhaka Courier on 14 August 2014]
‘China can play positive role in Asia’ Sheikh
Hasina, then leader of the opposition in the 5th parliament, after
her coming back from China in November 1993 that took place at the invitation
by the Communist Party of China, told the waiting media persons at the Zia
International Airport (‘Sheikh Hasina’s Visit to China: Seen in the wider
perspective’ by the writer, Daily Star, 05 February 1994). In a press brief on 14 June 2014 at Dhaka after her recent
visit to China she, now Prime Minister of the Government of the People’s
Republic of Bangladesh, again voiced confidently that Bangladesh, burying the
bitter past, should renew and reaffirm that mutual understanding and
cooperation between Bangladesh and China are now a point of reassessment and
reconsideration in the context of rapidly growing, mounting and escalating
political landscapes in the world in general and in Asia in particular. Having
all these in true perspective, the above asking is very much imperative and
inexorable. Blasts and consequences of international and regional politics and
relations, necessarily or unnecessarily, backed by diplomacy of various
natures, forms and dimensions on the national politics and relations, far or
near, can hardly be set aside whether it is favorable or not. From these
viewpoints, Bangladesh-China Relations bear more attention with befitting
velocity and weight markedly in the setting of India-china and India-US Relations
on the one hand and Bangladesh-India Relations and Bangladesh-US Relations on
the other. This is a kind of enlargement of the article ‘Jostling under the
armpits of giants’ printed in Dhaka Courier on 14 August 2014.
In the last issue titled ‘Peeping into the
foreign policy of China’ in Daily Observer on 5 September 2014--- an extension
of the article ‘Understanding the foreign policy of China’ published in the
African Herald Express and Dhaka Courier on 7 August 2014-- I made guarded
attempts in brief to torch on the essentials of the foreign policy of China.
Therefore, at this instant the turn is for Bangladesh-China Relations bearing
in mind, first of all, on the whole the realities, implications and vehemence
of Bangladesh-India Relations. Reality is that any focus on working of the
foreign policy of Bangladesh shall fall into ditches without taking, first of
all, careful and pragmatic note of Bangladesh-India Relations.
Factually speaking, there prevail three
distinct approaches to Bangladesh-China Relations. These include (a) Bangladesh
should not embark upon such relations with China, which in the end stand
against the very interests of India. This is called ‘Pro-Indian approach’, (b)
Bangladesh has no choice but to go for digging and following her own line of
approaches with China without being much upset about the interests of India.
This is as a whole known as ‘Nationalistic stand’ or to say more aggressively
‘Anti-Indian Stand’ and (c) There we find another current of thoughts that
insists on choosing a mid-way in-between the two opposing extreme lines of
approaches. This may rightly be earmarked and documented as ‘moderate
approach’.
Logic for the first approach i.e. Pro-Indian
approach encompasses that for India-Bangladesh Relations two maxims are
paramount important since they are operative otherwise in the very minds of the
people, policy-makers, politicians, think-tanks, professional and
intelligentsia of diverse backgrounds and magnitudes. One is ‘Indo-phobic
Bangladesh at the mass level and India friendly Bangladesh at the government
level’ implying that while the people in general are India-phobic relations
between government to government levels remain almost steady and the other
being ‘Geography tells us to be with India(because Bangladesh is in essence an
India-locked county having the Bay of Bengal and Myanmar to the south-east) but
History advises us to be away from India(overall records both as a part of
British India and as an independent Bangladesh show that peaceful co-existence has
been being thwarted and foiled again and again due to recalcitrance and
non-cooperation of India’. But, interestingly enough, suppressing all these
realities comes before the crude reality that asks us to take note acutely that
‘Bangladesh owes to India for her birth, which was full of pains, intrigues and
bloods leading to the war of liberation. Without the active supports and
collaboration of India genesis of Bangladesh as a free, sovereign and
independent state within nine months of the war of liberation was a day dream.
In fact, on all realities and considerations
India is the mid-wife of the birth of Bangladesh. Therefore, India never wants
to see and puts up with such a Bangladesh, which appears to be a threat to her
at any rate and scale. India’s interests, inter alia, in the North-eastern
states comprising the seven sisters-------- Nagaland, Mizora, Arunachal
Pradesh, Meghalaya, Assam, Tripura and Manipuri plus Sikkim------ shall
have to be ensured anyhow and Bangladesh cannot escape the burden of
responsibility, if any. India has border disputes with China in the eastern
zone of Aurunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. Even there broke out war in 1962, which
was really a shock of defeat. Crucially enough, the recent unveiling of the
vertical map by China in the last week of June 2014 is a big concern for India
since it has included Aurunachal Pradesh as its inalienable part. From these
viewpoints, here proponents stick to the belief that ‘safe, stable and peaceful
seven sisters, now eight, stand as condition precedent for safe, stable and
peaceful Bangladesh’.
Judgment for the second i.e. Anti-Indian
Approach arises from the facts and realities that Bangladesh shall be in a
position to stand and stay at par with India provided Bangladesh comes out as a
good and strategic player diplomatically, politically and so on knowing very
well of her overall domestic resources, manpower, strengths, constraints,
limitations and compulsions at home and abroad. Proponents in this fold also
stick to the belief that Bangladesh is enormously endowed with scores of
possibilities, opportunities and avenues nationally, regionally and
internationally. What is needed as a priority is to formulate a broad-based,
accommodative, comprehensive, well-coordinated policies resting on apposite,
sustainable vision and mission after the spirit of the people of Bangladesh.
Continuance of restlessness in the north-eastern states and sustaining of and
gearing up the Indo-phobic Bangladesh at the mass level in various ways and means
are considered here as condition precedents. To the very purposes, foreign
policy shall accordingly be formulated and regulated. ‘Friendship to all and malice to none’ is
just a catchy and confusing slogan in our foreign policy. Rather friendships at
bi-lateral, regional and international levels shall be determined and cemented
in line with the fundamental objectives of the nation. From these standpoints,
the very names of Pakistan and China, two rivals of India, come to the
forefront. Therefore, under this second fold, supports, initiatives and
encouragements, material or otherwise, which go against India for the benefits
of Bangladesh, are treated as unavoidable necessities.
Arguments for the third i.e. moderate
approach comes from the facts and realities that today no state, big or small,
can stay and continue peacefully paying maximum attention to development,
economic and political, if it takes resort to the extreme confrontational
approach towards other state(s) whether it is big or small, neighbor or not. It
is noted and tested that a state is born with loads of issues and problems, old
or new. Of them fixation and demarcation of land and waters are very important
and most of the issues and problems crop up centering these two. Others come
from strategic-analytic point of views. Our discords with India primarily
involve land, waters, Indian accusation of giving shelter in Bangladesh to the
insurgents in the north-eastern states. Here lies Indian accusation of
Bangladesh’s link with Pakistan through its ISI. Others include smugglings,
trafficking and illegal border-crossings (push-in and push-back) and so
forth. Therefore, proponents in this
fold share the view that it is better, wiser and more conducive and pragmatic
to stay in-between the two extreme lines of actions and approaches. For this
Bangladesh in particular needs a ‘common approach’ towards India based on the
consensus of the leading political parties in Bangladesh pointedly Awami League
and Bangladesh Nationalist Party. More confrontational politics these parties
continue to play, more negative feedbacks shall be adding to our foreign
policy.
Keeping all these in true perspective, there
is no denying the fact that the present reality is laying face down to the
first approach i.e. extreme line of approach in favor of India. Question is how
can Bangladesh-China Relations be developed without disturbing India, arch
rival of China?
Few points and observations are to be taken
into notes and considerations such as (a) Shiekh Hasina administration trusted
India in full and she lavishly committed and gave India what India asked for
during the period of her second term of administration. She virtually received
nothing substantial and arguable. India called the period as ‘role model’.
Should Hasina echo so from the very boson of her mind? Yes, what India did for
Hasina shall be written in the political records of the two countries as
‘unflinching political supports to Hasina government even at the negation of
the political reality in Bangladesh. 05 January 2014 election to the 10th
parliament in Bangladesh was possible because India starkly stood by Hasina at
the annoyance of many including US and EU countries. India won the game and
Hasina cannot but be appreciative to the then Congress-led Government. Here the
role of Sonia Gandhi for Hasina was indeed a historic episode. Congress is no
more in power and now the turn is for Narendra Modi, a choice of BJP. .Foreign
policy lasts and continues through the processes of change and continuity. It
is now crystal clear that Modi administration is not going too away from his
predecessor. Let there be a message for the so-called high-ranking observers,
analysts, experts and think-tanks in Bangladesh in meticulous that there is,
therefore, lot of actualities that Hasina administration shall not be made
‘distant ally by Modi administration.
Better and safer it is to conclude that let us wait and see what
actually in course of time Hasina administration gets from Modi Government.
Sheikh Hasina is enterprising as much as
necessary and she has already started under her own steam in a broader scale,
mood and mode to refresh ties with China, a country that stood against the war
of liberation of Bangladesh. Does it signify that, for all practical purposes,
Sheikh Hasina is sliding towards China? Does it mean that she has chosen to
create a kind of cheek and balance with India by making and strengthening ties
with China? It is really the toughest task for her where lies dangers each and
every step, where possibilities, opportunities and realities are faced with
multiple conflicts, accommodations and reconciliations. I believe that she will
succeed or make a positive breakthrough finally given that she is now a matured
statesman who at least understands where the shoe pinches. Interestingly
enough, a class of critics at home and abroad are not missing to note
exaggeratedly that Hasina, while doing so, is carrying a green signal from
Modi. Another group is of the opinion that she is taking too many risks
arrogantly and emotionally due to pressures and compulsions from the challenging
and conflicting political landscapes at home. Let there be light, more and more light before
statesman Sheikh Hasina.
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