Jostling under the armpits of giants

[This was published in Dhaka Courier on 14 August 2014]

‘China can play positive role in Asia’ Sheikh Hasina, then leader of the opposition in the 5^th parliament, after her coming back from China in November 1993 that took place at the invitation by the Communist Party of China, told the waiting media persons at the Zia International Airport (‘Sheikh Hasina’s Visit to China: Seen in the wider perspective’ by the writer, Daily Star, 05 February 1994). In a press brief  on 14 June 2014 at Dhaka after her recent visit to China she, now Prime Minister of the Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh, again voiced confidently that Bangladesh, burying the bitter past, should renew and reaffirm that mutual understanding and cooperation between Bangladesh and China are now a point of reassessment and reconsideration in the context of rapidly growing, mounting and escalating political landscapes in the world in general and in Asia in particular. Having all these in true perspective, the above asking is very much imperative and inexorable. Blasts and consequences of international and regional politics and relations, necessarily or unnecessarily, backed by diplomacy of various natures, forms and dimensions on the national politics and relations, far or near, can hardly be set aside whether it is favorable or not. From these viewpoints, Bangladesh-China Relations bear more attention with befitting velocity and weight markedly in the setting of India-china and India-US Relations on the one hand and Bangladesh-India Relations and Bangladesh-US Relations on the other.

In the last issue titled ‘Understanding the foreign policy of China’ in Dhaka Courier on 8 August 2014, I made guarded attempts in brief to torch on the essentials of the foreign policy of China. Therefore, at this instant the turn is for Bangladesh-China Relations bearing in mind, first of all, on the whole the realities, implications and vehemence of Bangladesh-India Relations. Reality is that any focus on working of the foreign policy of Bangladesh shall fall into ditches without taking, first of all, careful and pragmatic note of Bangladesh-India Relations.

Factually speaking, there prevail three distinct approaches to Bangladesh-China Relations. These include (a) Bangladesh should not embark upon such relations with China, which in the end stand against the very interests of India. This is called ‘Pro-Indian approach’, (b) Bangladesh has no choice but to go for digging and following her own line of approaches with China without being much worried about the interests of India. This is known as ‘Anti-Indian Stand’ as a whole and (c) There we find another current of thoughts that insists on choosing a mid-way in-between the two extreme lines of approaches. This may rightly be recognized as ‘moderate approach’.

Logic for the first approach i.e. Pro-Indian approach encompasses that for India-Bangladesh Relations two maxims are paramount important since they are operative otherwise in the very minds of the people, policy-makers, politicians, think-tanks, professional and intelligentsia of diverse backgrounds and magnitudes. One is ‘Indo-phobic Bangladesh at the mass level and India friendly Bangladesh at the government level’ implying that while the people in general are India-phobic relations between government to government levels remain almost steady and the other being ‘Geography tells us to be with India(because Bangladesh is in essence an India-locked county having the Bay of Bengal and Myanmar to the south-east) but History advises us to be away from India(overall records both as a part of British India and as an independent Bangladesh show that peaceful co-existence has been being thwarted and foiled again and again due to recalcitrance and non-cooperation of India’. But, interestingly enough, suppressing all these realities comes before the crude reality that asks us to take note acutely that ‘Bangladesh owes to India for her birth, which was full of pains, intrigues and bloods leading to the war of liberation. Without the active supports and collaboration of India genesis of Bangladesh as a free, sovereign and independent state within nine months of the war of liberation was a day dream. In fact, on all counts India is the mid-wife of the birth of Bangladesh. Therefore, India never wants to see and puts up with such a Bangladesh, which appears to be a threat to her at any rate and scale. India’s interests, inter alia, in the North-eastern states comprising the seven sisters-------- Nagaland, Mizora, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Assam, Tripura and Manipuri------ shall have to be ensured anyhow and Bangladesh cannot escape the burden of responsibility, if any. Here ‘safe seven sisters stand as condition precedent for safe Bangladesh’.

Judgment for the second i.e. Anti-Indian Approach arises from the facts and realities that Bangladesh shall be in a position to stand and stay at par with India provided Bangladesh comes out as a good and strategic player diplomatically, politically and so on knowing very well of her overall domestic resources, manpower, strengths, constraints, limitations and compulsions at home and abroad. Proponents in this fold also stick to the belief that Bangladesh is enormously endowed with scores of possibilities, opportunities and avenues nationally, regionally and internationally. What is needed as a priority is to formulate a broad-based, accommodative, comprehensive, well-coordinated policies resting on apposite, sustainable vision and mission after the spirit of the people of Bangladesh. Continuance of restlessness in the north-eastern states and sustaining of and gearing up the Indo-phobic Bangladesh at the mass level in various ways and means are considered here as condition precedents. To the very purposes, foreign policy shall accordingly be formulated and regulated.  ‘Friendship to all and malice to none’ is just a catchy and confusing slogan in our foreign policy. Rather friendships at bi-lateral, regional and international levels shall be determined and cemented in line with the fundamental objectives of the nation. From these standpoints, the very names of Pakistan and China, two rivals of India, come to the forefront. Therefore, under this second fold, supports, initiatives and encouragements, material or otherwise, which go against India for the benefits of Bangladesh, are treated as unavoidable necessities.

Arguments for the third i.e. moderate approach comes from the facts and realities that today no state, big or small, can stay and continue peacefully paying maximum attention to development, economic and political, if it takes resort to the extreme confrontational approach towards other state(s) whether it is big or small, neighbor or not. It is noted and tested that a state is born with loads of issues and problems, old or new. Of them fixation and demarcation of land and waters are very important and most of the issues and problems crop up centering these two. Others come from strategic-analytic point of views. Our discords with India primarily involve land, waters, Indian accusation of giving shelter in Bangladesh to the insurgents in the north-eastern states. Here lies Indian accusation of Bangladesh’s link with Pakistan through its ISI. Others include smugglings, trafficking and illegal border-crossings (push-in and push-back) and so forth.  Therefore, proponents in this fold share the view that it is better, wiser and more conducive and pragmatic to stay in-between the two extreme lines of actions and approaches. For this Bangladesh in particular needs a ‘common approach’ towards India based on the consensus of the leading political parties in Bangladesh pointedly Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party. More confrontational politics these parties continue to play, more negative feedbacks shall be adding to our foreign policy.

Keeping all these in true perspective, there is no denying the fact that the present reality is laying face down to the first approach i.e. extreme line of approach in favor of India. Question is how can Bangladesh-China Relations be developed without disturbing India, arch rival of China?

Few points and observations are to be taken into notes and considerations such as (a) Shiekh Hasina administration trusted India in full and she lavishly committed and gave India what India asked for during the period of her second term of administration. She virtually received nothing substantial and arguable. India called the period as ‘role model’. Should Hasina echo so from the very boson of her mind ? Yes, what India did for Hasina shall be written in the political records of the two countries as ‘unflinching political supports to Hasina government even at the negation of the political reality in Bangladesh. 05 January 2014 election to the 10^th parliament in Bangladesh was possible because India nakedly stood by Hasina at the annoyance of US and EU countries. India won the game and Hasina cannot but be appreciative to the then Congress-led Government. Here the role of Sonia Gandhi for Hasina was indeed a historic episode. Congress is no more in power and now the turn is for Narendra Modi, a choice of BJP. .Foreign policy lasts and continues through the processes of change and continuity. It is now crystal clear that Modi administration is not going too away from his predecessor. Let there be a message for the so-called high-ranking observers, analysts, experts and think-tanks in Bangladesh in meticulous that there is, therefore, lot of actualities that Hasina administration shall not be made ‘distant ally by Modi administration.  Better and safer it is to conclude that let us wait and see what actually in course of time Hasina administration gets from Modi Government.

Sheikh Hasina is enterprising as much as necessary and she has already started under her own steam in a broader scale, mood and mode to refresh ties with China, a country that stood against the war of liberation of Bangladesh. Does it signify that, for all practical purposes, Sheikh Hasina is sliding towards China? Does it mean that she has chosen to create a kind of cheek and balance with India by making and strengthening ties with China? It is really the toughest task for her where lies dangers each and every step, where possibilities, opportunities and realities are faced with multiple conflicts, accommodations and reconciliations. I believe that she will succeed or make a positive breakthrough finally since she is now a matured statesman who at least understands where the shoe pinches. Interestingly enough, a class of critics at home and abroad are not missing to note exaggeratedly that Hasina, while doing so, is carrying a green signal from Modi. Another group is of the opinion that she is taking too many risks. Hence, before embarking upon Bangladesh-China Relations, focus (es) shall accordingly be made on China-India Relations, China-US Relations and India-US Relations in sequence staring from the next issue.